Day-Ahead and Intra-Day Building Load Forecast With Uncertainty Bounds Using Small Data Batches

An approach to provide day-ahead and intra-day load forecasts of buildings, such as electrical or thermal power consumption, is presented. The method aims to obtain a nominal forecast and associated error bounds with small data batches of two weeks for the training phase, resulting in a ready-to-go algorithm that can be employed whenever large datasets of months or years are not available or manageable. These cases include new or renovated constructions, buildings that are subject to changes in purpose and occupants' behavior, or applications on local devices with memory limits. The approach relies on a so-called "fictitious input" signal to capture the prior information on seasonal and periodic trends of load consumption. Then, linear multistep predictors with different horizon lengths are trained periodically with a small batch of the most recent data, and the associated worst case error bounds are derived, using set membership (SM) methods. Finally, the forecast is computed, for each time step, by intersecting the error bounds of the different multistep predictions and taking the central value of the obtained interval. Such a method is applied here for the first time to real-world data of electrical power consumption of a medium-size building and of cooling power consumption of a large complex. In both cases, the obtained results indicate a tightening of the worst case error bounds between 15% and 25% on average with respect to those obtained with a standard linear SM approach

Studio RIFRA: il rischio fratturativo in Italia

L'osteoporosi \ue8 un disordine scheletrico cronico-evolutivo, caratferizzato dalla perdita dell'equilibrio del metabolismo osseo con conseguente degenerazione quantitativa e qualitativa che compromette la resistenza dell'osso e predispone ad un aumentato rischio di fratture. Colpisce soprattutto il sesso femminile,conunaprevalenza del33%nelrange tra60eT0aacheaumentaconl'avanzaredell'et\ue0. Pu\uf2 rimanere clinicamente silente e successivamente manifestarsi con fratture (vertebrali 100.000 casi/anno, di polso 85.000 casi/anno e femorali 80.000 casi/anno). Le fratture da fragilit\ue0 comportano gravi conse gse\ueeze, sia a livello clinico individuale che sociale ed economico; rappresenrano pertanto una fonte di disabilit\ue0 complessa, che in quanto tale necessita di una presa in carico globale. Lo studio RIFRA nasce da un'idea del GISMO per rispondere alla necessit\ue0 primaria di quantificare il reale rischio fratturativo in Italia attraverso una specifica scheda e di valutare l'influenza delle comorbilit\ue0 e delle terapie corelate al rischio di frattura. L'obiettivo secondario analizzare \a percentuale di pazienti sottoposti a trattamento farmacologico in relazione ai valori densitometrici e alle pregresse fratture, nonch\ue9 valutare la prevalenza di fratture da fragilit\ue0 nella popol azione in studio

Optimized modeling and design of a pcm-enhanced h2 storage

Thermal and mechanical energy storage is pivotal for the effective exploitation of renewable energy sources, thus fostering the transition to a sustainable economy. Hydrogen-based systems are among the most promising solutions for electrical energy storage. However, several technical and economic barriers (e.g., high costs, low energy and power density, advanced material requirements) still hinder the diffusion of such solutions. Similarly, the realization of latent heat storages through phase change materials is particularly attractive because it provides high energy density in addition to allowing for the storage of the heat of fusion at a (nearly) constant temperature. In this paper, we posit the challenge to couple a metal hydride H-2 canister with a latent heat storage, in order to improve the overall power density and realize a passive control of the system temperature. A highly flexible numerical solver based on a hybrid Lattice Boltzmann Phase-Field (LB-PF) algorithm is developed to assist the design of the hybrid PCM-MH tank by studying the melting and solidification processes of paraffin-like materials. The present approach is used to model the storage of the heat released by the hydride during the H-2 loading process in a phase change material (PCM). The results in terms of Nusselt numbers are used to design an enhanced metal-hydride storage for H-2-based energy systems, relevant for a reliable and cost-effective "Hydrogen Economy". The application of the developed numerical model to the case study demonstrates the feasibility of the posited design. Specifically, the phase change material application significantly increases the heat flux at the metal hydride surface, thus improving the overall system power density

Models of polymer solutions in electrified jets and solution blowing

Fluid flows hosting electrical phenomena make the subject of a fascinating and highly interdisciplinary scientific field. In recent years, the extraordinary success of electrospinning and solution blowing technologies for the generation of polymer nanofibers has motivated vibrant research aiming at rationalizing the behavior of viscoelastic jets under applied electric fields or other stretching fields including gas streams. Theoretical models unveiled many original aspects in the underpinning physics of polymer solutions in jets, and provided useful information to improve experimental platforms. This article reviews advances in the theoretical description and numerical simulation of polymer solution jets in electrospinning and solution blowing. Instability phenomena of electrical and hydrodynamic origin are highlighted, which play a crucial role in the relevant flow physics. Specifications leading to accurate and computationally viable models are formulated. Electrohydrodynamic modeling, theories for the jet bending instability, recent advances in Lagrangian approaches to describe the jet flow, including strategies for dynamic refinement of simulations, and effects of strong elongational flow on polymer networks are reviewed. Finally, the current challenges and future perspectives of the field are outlined and discussed, including the task of correlating the physics of the jet flows with the properties of realized materials, as well as the development of multiscale techniques for modelling viscoelastic jets.Comment: 135 pages, 42 figure

Il trattamento riabilitativo integrato alla terapia farmacologica con anticorpo anti RANK-L

abstract pubblicato su atti congressual

Effects of Orthogonal Rotating Electric Fields on Electrospinning Process

Electrospinning is a nanotechnology process whereby an external electric field is used to accelerate and stretch a charged polymer jet, so as to produce fibers with nanoscale diameters. In quest of a further reduction in the cross section of electrified jets hence of a better control on the morphology of the resulting electrospun fibers, we explore the effects of an external rotating electric field orthogonal to the jet direction. Through extensive particle simulations, it is shown that by a proper tuning of the electric field amplitude and frequency, a reduction of up to a $30 \%$ in the aforementioned radius can be obtained, thereby opening new perspectives in the design of future ultra-thin electrospun fibres. Applications can be envisaged in the fields of nanophotonic components as well as for designing new and improved filtration materials.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

Infecção natural pelo Trypanosoma cruzi em cães de áreas endêmicas da República Argentina

The population dynamics and the prevalence of chagasic infection of 352 dogs living in 108 rural houses infested by triatomines were studied. The region was divided into three sections according to increasing distances to an urban area. Each animal was identified by means of its particular characteristics and built, and its owners gave information about its habits. By means of xenodiagnosis, serology and ECG studies, prevalences of infection, parasitological-serological correlation, percentage of altered electrocardiographic outlines and percentage of houses with parasitemic dogs, were determined. The rural area showed a characteristic T. cruzi infection pattern and differences in the canine population parameters with respect to the other areas were observed: a higher proportion of puppies than adult dogs, a more sedentary population, higher prevalences of infection, as measured by xenodiagnosis, in dogs, and the highest proportion of bedroom insects infected with T. cruzi. It is assumed that the sedentary characteristics of the human population in that rural area impinge in the blood offer to the triatomine population, and the high percentage of parasitemic dogs of the area, contribute to the rise of "kissing ougs" infected with T. cruzi found in bedrooms.Estudou-se a dinâmica populacional e a prevalência de infecção chagásica de 352 cães vivendo em 108 moradias rurais infestadas por triato-míneos. A área foi dividida em três setores de acordo com suas crescentes distâncias em relação a um povoado urbano. Cada animal foi identificado mediante suas características particulares, e seus donos deram informações a respeito de seus hábitos. As prevalências de infecção foram determinadas por sorologia, correlação parasitológica-sorológica, percentual de traçados eletrocardiográficos alterados e o percentual de moradias com cães parasitados. A área rural mostrou um padrão característico de infecção por T. cruzi e observaram-se diferenças nos parâmetros de população canina em relação às restantes áreas: maior proporção de filhotes, maior população humana e canina sedentárias, maiores prevalências de infecção por xenodiagnóstico em cães e maior proporção de barbeiros infectados com T. cruzi nos cômodos da casa. Supõe-se que as características sedentárias da população humana desta área rural é fundamental para a oferta de sangue para as populações triatomíneas, e a elevada porcentagem de cães parasitêmicos dessa área contribui para o aumento de barbeiros infectados com T. cruzi encontrados nos quartos de dormir

Case report: laser Nd:YAG e rieducazione funzionale nella sindrome del piriforme

La sindrome del piriforme \ue8 caratterizzata da una lombalgia con interessamento del gluteo e con possibile irradiazione all'arto inferiore; pu\uf2 essere definita come una patologia dovuta ad intrappolamento, compressione o irritazione del nervo sciatico a livello del muscolo piriforme con o senza deficit neurologici. In questo studio \ue8 stata valutata l'efficacia della sinergia terapeutica tra laser Neodimio:YAG e rieducazione funzionale nella riduzione del dolore e nel miglioramento dell'indipendenza funzionale in una paziente affetta da sindrome del piriforme

X-linked intellectual disability

The intellectual disability is found in approximately 2-3% of the population in a mild-to-moderate form and 0.5-1% in a moderate-to-severe form. The mutations on the chromosome X are responsible for both syndromic and non-syndromic intellectual disability. In the syndromic forms behavioral disorders, autism and/or seizures are frequent

Contribuição dos humanos, cães e gatos à transmissão do Trypanosoma cruzi na Região do Chaco Argentino

Foi determinada a prevalência da infecção por T. cruzi nos humanos, cães e gatos, pertencentes a 47 rancherías em três povoados rurais; Guanaco Muerto (Córdoba), La Invernada e Amamás (Santiago del Estero), mediante reações seroldgicas e xenodiagnóstico. Poram examinadas 245 pessoas, 123 cães e 14 gatos. A taxa de prevalência na população foi entre 58,7% (GM) e 49,6% (LI). Foram detectados 76% de cães infectados, o que resultou significativamente superior aos 51% encontrados nos humanos. As porcentagens de cães (64,2%) e gatos (63,6%) com parasitemia foram significativamente superiores à correspondente aos humanos (12,5%). Se bem que 79% dos gatos estavam infectados, sua pequena quantidade e seus hábitos de perambulação determinam que sua participação na transmissão doméstica do T. cruzi seja restrita. Não obstante existir em média um maior número de humanos que de cães em cada lar, tanto de sujeitos sãos como infectados (6,5 vs. 3,3 e 3,4 vs. 2,4, respectivamente), foram detectados também na média mais cães que humanos com parasitemia em cada casa (2,1 vs. 1,0). As altas porcentagens de cães infectados e com parasitemia, além do hábito de repouso intra-domiciliário o qual ocasiona estreito contacto entre eles e os barbeiros determinam que os cães sejam os principais provedores de parásitos à disposição para a transmissão, e os hospedeiros mais importantes para /nanutenção da doença de Chagas na Região do Chaco Argentino.Trypanosoma cruzi prevalence rates of human, dog and cat populations from 47 households of 3 rural localities of the phytogeographical Chaqueña area of Argentina were determined both by serological and xenodiagnostic procedures. Human prevalence rates were uniform and ranged from 49.6 to 58.7%. Overall prevalence rate in dogs (75.0%) was significantly higher than in humans (51.0%). The overall proportion of parasitemic individuals assessed by xenodiagnosis was significantly higher in either dog (64.2%) or cat (63.6%) populations than among humans (12.5%). Although both the average number of resident as well as infected individuals per household was higher for people than for dogs (6.5 vs. 3.3, and 3.4 vs. 2.4, respectively), the reverse was recorded when parasitemic individuals were considered (1.0 vs. 2.1). Results are discussed in relation to dog between dogs and people, and dogs and bugs. In the light of present data, dogs must be considered as the major donors of parasites to vector bugs and thus, principal contributors to transmission in this region of Argentina